development of vaccines

[NotchWnt]

Hello everyone!

Right, I have a small question: Is it possible to predict the cost of developing a new vaccine, under the regulations of one country only? The cost would have to involve research, planning clinical trials, going through all the trials successfully and then marketing the product. But in reality, since this would take years, up to 2 decades if not more, how is it possible to realistically calculate how much all this is going to cost?

[canalon]

I guessthe answer is likely to be no. Just because I know how unpredictible the research cost can be.

[MichaelXY]

I guessthe answer is likely to be no. Just because I know how unpredictible the research cost can be.

I would think that when a pharma company is looking for investors, they would have to provide projected cost for R&D. I assume they could use previous research as a model. I would find it hard to believe that a company would expect investors to dole out money blindly. I am sure there is some sort of business model that they would use.
eg. At my last job (A high tech electronics company), the Program managers would create a schedule for completion which included man power budget, equipment budget, and time to completion. The PM's would submit their numbers to the business unit. Of course these figures were usually off, but all the people working on the project would work to meet the PM's schedule. It would be foolish to develop a new technology without any forecast of cost. To predict cost on a level that the poster asked would require many professional disciplines, but I think it is done.