Endnotes

- Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

¹ The highest figures, based on estimates of marine biomass and assuming rates of harvest at the various trophic levels at least one order of magnitude larger than the present one, do not have much credit today.

² It is not clear whether Gulland’s estimates took discards into account. Considering the rapid development of long-range specialized fleets during the period, however, some of the 27 mt of discards (on average) estimated by Alverson et al. (1994) for the early 1990s were probably already caught in the late 1970s and early 1980s, improving Gulland’s forecast.

³ Twelve of these species produce 40–50% of the world catch, the second half of which is produced by 538 other species.

⁴ These numbers are extracted from figure 11.2 in Klyashtorin (2001).

⁵ The first estimate of world discards by FAO (17–39 mt with a central value of 27 mt, made for FAO by Alverson et al. (1994) and reflecting the situation in the 1980s and early 1990s has been considered an overestimate and was informally revised shortly after to ca. 20 mt (FAO 1997). A still ongoing reassessment (Kelleher 2003), with more data covering the last decade, indicates a significant decrease to probably less than 10 mt.

⁶ The potential impact of ocean fertilization (with iron) remains to be demonstrated.

⁷ They found that the average trophic levels in catches declined in most regions of the world, most markedly Northwest and Northeast Atlantic.

⁸ These concerns were addressed more thoroughly in the recent work by IFPRI and ICLARM to include fish in the world food model (Delgado et al. 2003).

⁹ Despite earlier statements that fish consumption was predetermined, equal to production and independent of price (cited by De Silva 2001).

¹⁰ In other words, what decreased is assumed to decrease in the future too, at a lower rate of decrease, and vice versa.

¹¹ Competition among poor consumers for inexpensive species and aquaculture feeds was excluded from the model assuming that these two destinations were coming from different and non-interacting fisheries. This constraint may however not hold in the future if globalization and overall demand increase.

¹² Stabilization of exports relative to imports and of local consumption relative to exports.

¹³ Mainly related to shrimp (Crustacea, Decapoda) and salmon culture.

¹⁴ This section has benefitted greatly from the assistance of Andrew Smith, Fishing Technology Service, FAO Fisheries Industries Division.

¹⁵ In several countries (e.g. Sweden, USA, Italy), warnings have already been issued against the use of some parts of the fish (fat, skin, entrails), advising pregnant women against eating fish more than once a week. The European Commission regulations on dioxine already exclude fish from some areas from trade and consumption.

¹⁶ According to Andrew Smith, the coverage of the Lloyds database was ca. 70% in the 1970s and is now ca. 96% of the world fleet of vessels of 100 t or more (ca. 24 m length and more).

¹⁷ Distant-water fishery landings are here defined as quantities taken by vessels in all FAO major fishing areas other than those adjacent to the flag State. Their evolution has already been analysed by Grainger & Garcia (1996).

¹⁸ As Larkin (1972) put it, a summary assessment of science and management performance would require ‘twenty pages for introduction, one page for results, and hundred pages for rationalized excuses’. A statement confirmed in Alverson & Larkin (1994) and still largely valid 10 years later.

¹⁹ Particularly in the area of illegal fishing and the problems created by flags of convenience, i.e. in the 1993 FAO Compliance Agreement, 1995 UN Fish Stock Agreement and 1995 FAO Code of Conduct.

²⁰ The two modes refer to the terminology of (Novwotny et al. 2001).

²¹ This is the case in the USA where the National Marine Service scientists were facing more than 150 lawsuits in 2002.

²² The wealth of socio-economic works relating systems of governance and resources conservation or depletion remind us that these scenarios are not purely fictitious constructions (Braudel 1986; Ostrom 1990, 2000).

²³Gallopin (2002) finds it difficult to conceive how the Market World would lead directly to a best case scenario that he rather sees as emerging from global perception of environmental stress and global risk for the ecosystem and its inhabitants, global warming with catastrophic consequences and the realization of the futility of social polarization.

²⁴ The stock market is unstable, showing threats of collapse as major economic powers struggle against deflation.

²⁵ The world oil reserves are plummeting and, unless new forms of energy are rapidly detected, serious problems for the present dominant civilization may materialize within 2–3 decades (Rifkin 2002).

²⁶ Through the expansion of long-range fleets, increased market flows, transfers of technology, improved information flows, trade liberalization, pressure to eliminate subsidies; awareness of environmental impacts, demands for decentralization and participation, increasing demand for use rights, etc.

²⁷ See http://www.oceansatlas.com/world_fisheries_and_aquaculture/html/issues/

²⁸ The example of the campaigns in the US against the imports of Vietnamese cultured catfish may be exemplary of the behaviour that can develop in this respect (Fighting dirty over catfish, Herald Tribune, 23 July 2003).

²⁹ Data from World Bank, 2002, http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/modules/social/pgr/chart1.html).

³⁰ It might be useful in this respect to note that the total disappearance of the Southern Aral sea is now predicted for 2018 (Agence France Press, 21 July 2003), a result no fishery can achieve.

³¹ They also noted that the combination of efforts to save energy, reduce bottom impacts and improve selectivity may lead to elimination of trawling in favour of gillnetting.