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Biology Articles » Hydrobiology » Marine Biology » Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries » Appendices

Appendices
- Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Appendix A
Optimists versus pessimists

Costanza et al. (2000) and Costanza (2001) distinguished ‘technological optimists’ from ‘technological sceptics’. For the former, technology can deal with any future challenge, the future is a smooth extrapolation of the past and the market is a good guiding principle. The latter, which we could also call ‘societal optimists’, accept technological development but give priority to social and economic development, recognize market imperfections and natural carrying capacity constraints, hold that the largely unpredictable future contains surprises and therefore requires a precautionary approach. Borrowing this framework, the table below shows the two opposite visions of future fisheries and the consequences if such visions and related policies are indeed correct or wrong. There are obviously other ways of combining the various elements shown in that table and some other elements than those considered could be brought in. As it stands, however, the table intends to illustrate the main directions for future fisheries and the way they might unfold.

real state of the fishery sector
if the vision/policy was right if the vision/policy was wrong
visions and policies of techno-optimists fishing technology can evolve to face ecosystem and equity challenges low-impact technology adopted; small- and large-scale fishing coevolve high-impact technology dominate; large-scale fishing dooms small-scale
the market (including consumer controls) will ‘fix’ most problems for the benefit of all Eco-labelling fixes the problem; continued growth provides excluded fishers with alternative employment consumers’willingness to pay is limited; rising prices fuel overcapacity; no alternative employment
competition for the market will select eco-efficient entrepreneurs VMS and zero tolerance eliminate illegal and destructive fishing legal fishing is quasi impossible; armed pirating and conflicts are the rule
the ecosystem is reversible, predictable and can be modified ecosystem rehabilitated and enhanced; fluctuations accounted for; rare collapses degraded ecosystem; unpredictable fluctuations; frequent collapses
fishing is the main driving force, not pollution fishing is controlled and reduced; profitability and stocks rebuild; fish is the healthiest food polluted ecosystems produce less at higher costs; fish is a contaminated food
aquaculture production will fill supply gap intensive practices, selective breeding and genetic manipulations will lead to food security environmental damage; contaminated food; focus on carnivores aggravates overfishing
visions and policies of techno-sceptics fishing technology will not meet the challenge; better governance will good governance is in place (ecosystem approach to fisheries, precaution, indicators); long-term interests are valued fox in the hen pen; short-term interests; lip-service to ecosystem maintenance
international collaboration can correct market failures World Trade Organization ruling and zero-subsidies policies lead to economically effective fisheries free trade dooms local environmental protection; global supplies threatened
community development is the key, in the context of strong use rights privatization improves stewardship and compliance; conflicts are resolved locally privatization leads to concentration, exclusion, and expansion of violent conflicts
alternative employment can be created/found overall growth provides alternative jobs to small-scale fisheries; social peace lack of alternative employment; ghettoes of ‘sea-less’ fishers in rural areas; social unrest
the system is complex, nonlinear, naturally oscillating and partly irreversible ecosystem and precautionary approaches; flexible development; improved forecasts; contingency plans overriding weight of social risk and political costs in absence of safety nets; insufficient research; poor forecast; costly ‘surprises’
aquaculture and capture fisheries will be integrated (e.g. in integrated coastal area management) harmonious responsible co-development maintains good and accessible supplies competition for space and resources, which in the market leads to disruptive booms and busts
Appendix B

Future strategies for the North Sea (Pope 1989).

societal objective for the North Sea
criteria playground (recreation) foreign exchange earner fish farm larder (food and dumping area)
climate warmer much warmer as at present cool and wet
species tropicalized,+aliens+ introduced mainly pelagics and shrimp few luxury wild species ‘single species’ surimi
sea level high but contained very high as usual irrelevant (?)
fish size large small portion-size small
ecosystem manipulated; enhanced, stocked, culling; mandatory environmental impact assessment manipulated, enhanced; artificial reefs; drowned coastal areas and cities stocking, artificial reefs; pollution normalized and monitored high pollution and contamination; strongly modified
fishing activity very low high effort; depressed economics; offshore fisheries leased out none in coastal area; reduction of fisheries in deep water state-owned fleets
farming very active trash fish used as fish food; exotic species for high-end markets very active; automated; ranching no role
recreation high (local) high (tourism) low (no time) low (not exciting)
conservation high kills of juveniles; high bycatch low low
management eliminates most fishing to keep high abundance and species diversity seasonal closures; taxes; effort leased out to best bidder; taxes supporting aquaculture sea enclosures; industrial transferable quotas; few operators produce maximum economic yield maximizes proteins supply: effort limits; technical measures; equal pressure on all species
wild harvest luxury, limited limited low high in ambient malnutrition
economy prosperous declines very wealthy; industrious people poor; malnutrition
employment low low (local) high unemployment; jobs in polluting industries
trade imports high imports low; exports of shellfish imports low ?
role of science species introductions; forecasts; assessments weak, FAO-supported modest; mainly privately funded surveys

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