In order to illustrate the analysis of the history, livelihood and interactions among the populations of Caiçaras, data on the northern coast of São Paulo will be shown in terms of a metapopulation and resilience analysis. Table 1 illustrates the migration processes between two sets of metapopulations: the populations of Búzios, Vitória Island and the coast, and the populations located close to the city of Ubatuba (Figure 1).
Metapopulation I includes migration between the mainland and the islands, in all directions. During the fieldwork, we gathered data on migration from Búzios Island to Ilhabela and to São Sebastião city (neighborhood of Bairro de Sao Francisco), as well as from Ilhabela to Búzios Island (Figure 2). Metapopulation II shows an intense interaction occurring among populations of the northern coast, between the districts of Ubatuba (São Paulo State) and Paratí (Rio de Janeiro State). In both cases, a spatially explicit metapopulation model is represented, assuming an inverse relationship of exchange (by migration) between populations and their distance [33]. That is, migration tends to concentrate between close or neighbor communities. The importance of such models is that they proportionate a representation of the level of connectedness among the populations of Caiçaras.
Connectivity is a measure of interaction or, in other words, of patch isolation, because migrants to a given patch decrease when the distance to their born place increases (Table 1) [32]. Note that migration processes bring together both genetic and cultural variations, and mixing in heterogeneous environments will increase the variance of initial phenotypes [35]. Migration is a strong cultural evolutionary force, since it brings cultural variability, which can be adaptive in changing or in heterogeneous environments. Such variability might have been important in order to proportionate the necessary flexibility to Caiçaras to deal with a changing environment, as the surroundings of the Atlantic Forest coast.
The degree of connectedness influences the internal and external processes of populations and as a part of adaptive cycles it is implicitly tied to resilience [38]. The adaptive cycles observed among the metapopulations of Caiçaras from the northern coast of São Paulo are shown in Figure 3. Such adaptive cycles are linked to historic and economic processes in the region, as observed in Table 2.
Associating the metapopulation of the Caiçaras (Figure 2) with their historical-ecological flow represented through the adaptive cycles in Figure 3, several questions can be posed:
I) Caiçaras adapted to different economic cycles through a relative flexibility in dealing with the environment and with the regional and national economy. They extracted local resources and participated in local and regional economy. Populations maintained their sizes, and maintained connections through migrations. Release was followed by reorganization in the economy towards a new cycle (Figure 3):
a. How the restrictions imposed by the Serra do Mar State Park affect the Caiçaras' capacity of reorganization?
b. Can such restrictions affect the resilience of the local populations, being an obstacle towards a new adaptive cycle?
c. If a new adaptive cycle does not occur, does it mean that a new stable state will not exist, and that the Caiçaras will loose their capacity to continue interacting with the forest resources?
d. Could a new adaptive cycle, based on tourism and on recreational fishing (the current tendency) be resilient, contributing to the ecological and social resilience of the Atlantic Forest and of the Caiçaras?
II) In metapopulations I and II (Figure 2), it may be suggested that the connectedness in genetic and cultural variants among and within the populations of Caiçaras is maintained through migrations among populations. In spite of their connectedness through metapopulations, the Caiçaras differ in the capacity of having strong communication channels within and among the metapopulations, compared to the experience of the caboclos, rural inhabitants of the Amazon [13,14,27]. For example, in the Amazon, The Verdes Florestas Radio Station (Upper Juruá Extractive Reserve), and the various communication systems in the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve are examples of channels that integrate local residents and help in the decision processes concerning their environment and their economic activities. On the other hand, such lack of communication among Caiçaras does not imply that they could not be helpful in local management programs. The occurrence of local rules and practices, such as related to manioc cultivation and its local diversity [42,43] or related to the local fisheries, through an informal division in the use of fishing spots at sea, among others [2,19] are examples of behaviors that could flow through adequate communication channels.
a. In terms of communication channels, how does the relative slow connectedness of Caiçaras affect their capacity to overcome the impositions from the external system (legislation from the State Park, for example)?
b. How does the lack of communication channels among the Caiçaras decrease their empowerment capacity?
c. Are the external impositions (from legislation, for example), which exclude the local rules developed by the Caiçaras, already a result of a weak local power?
d. How does this weak local empowerment affect the Caiçaras' ecological and cultural resilience?
e. How will the extinction of the local Caiçaras affect the resilience of the last remnants of the Atlantic Forest coast?
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